La Niña continues to weaken, likely ending next month


April 27, 2021

MANILA, Philippines — La Niña, which is associated with above normal rains, continued to weaken and is likely to end next month, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has said.

Latest data showed there is an 80 percent probability of a transition to ENSO-neutral, meaning there is no prevailing La Niña or El Niño, by May, June or July, according to PAGASA.

“A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely in the next month or so, with ENSO-neutral then favored through September to November 2021,” PAGASA senior weather specialist Rusy Abastillas said at a recent virtual climate forum.

Meanwhile, PAGASA said the maximum or hottest temperatures in Northern Luzon and lowlands Luzon are forecast to reach 39.8 degrees Celsius and 38.3 degrees Celsius, respectively, in May.

In Metro Manila, the maximum temperature is likely to reach 37.5 degrees Celsius, it said.

The weather bureau also said it expects a “normal” onset of the rainy season in areas under Climate Type I, which includes Metro Manila.

“Onset of the rainy season associated with the southwest monsoon for Climate Type I areas is expected to be normal, from second half of May to first half of June,” Abastillas said.

PAGASA said eight to 11 tropical cyclones might enter or develop within the Philippine area of responsibility between May and October this year.

Two tropical cyclones have entered the country so far this year.

Typhoon Bising (international name Surigae), which affected the eastern section of the country this month, left at least four people dead and damage to agriculture and infrastructure amounting to more than P200 million.


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